簡(jiǎn)介：第八章人力資源規(guī)劃,CHP8HUMANRESOURCEPLANNING,案例,北京?？浦圃旃镜臓I(yíng)銷經(jīng)理趙旺在每周經(jīng)理例會(huì)上說(shuō)“我有個(gè)好消息，我們可以與麥多德公司簽訂一大筆合同。我們所要做的就是在一年而不是兩年內(nèi)完成該計(jì)劃。我告訴過(guò)他們我們能夠做到?！?然而人力資源副經(jīng)理王林的話卻讓每個(gè)人都必須面對(duì)現(xiàn)實(shí)，她說(shuō)在我看來(lái)，我們現(xiàn)有的工人并不具備按麥多德公司的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)生產(chǎn)出優(yōu)質(zhì)產(chǎn)品所需要的專業(yè)知識(shí)。在原來(lái)兩年的計(jì)劃進(jìn)度表中，我們?cè)?jì)劃對(duì)現(xiàn)有工人逐步進(jìn)行培訓(xùn)，但是按現(xiàn)在這個(gè)新的時(shí)間表我們將不得不到勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)上招募那些具有該方面工作經(jīng)驗(yàn)的工人?；蛟S我們有必要進(jìn)一步分析一下這個(gè)方案，看看是否確實(shí)需要這么做。如果我們要在一年內(nèi)而不是兩年中完成這一計(jì)劃，人力資源成本將大幅度上升。不錯(cuò)，趙經(jīng)理，我們能夠做到這一點(diǎn)，但是由于有些約束條件，這個(gè)計(jì)劃的效益會(huì)好嗎,假設(shè)你分別是營(yíng)銷經(jīng)理、人力資源經(jīng)理、公司總經(jīng)理，面對(duì)這種情況，你的態(tài)度是什么,策之而知得失之計(jì)，作之而知?jiǎng)屿o之理，形之而知生死之地，角之而知有余不足之處。孫子兵法虛實(shí),人力資源規(guī)劃（HUMANRESOURCEPLANNING）的含義,在企業(yè)發(fā)展和經(jīng)營(yíng)規(guī)劃的指導(dǎo)下進(jìn)行人員的供需平衡，以滿足企業(yè)在不同發(fā)展時(shí)期對(duì)人員的需求，為企業(yè)的發(fā)展提供符合質(zhì)量和數(shù)量要求的人力資源保證。EMPLOYMENTORPERSONNELPLANNINGISTHEPROCESSOFDECIDINGWHATPOSITIONSTHEFIRMWILLHAVETOFILL,ANDHOWTOFILLTHEM,概念理解1,HRP要在企業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略和經(jīng)營(yíng)規(guī)劃的基礎(chǔ)上來(lái)進(jìn)行。STRATEGICANALYSISWHATHUMANRESOURCESARENEEDEDANDWHATAREAVAILABLESTRATEGICFORMULATIONWHATISREQUIREDANDNECESSARYINSUPPORTOFHUMANRESOURCESSTRATEGICIMPLEMENTATIONHOWWILLTHEHUMANRESOURCESBEALLOCATED,CLARIFYPERFORMANCEEXPECTATIONSANDFUTUREMANAGEMENTMETHODSVALUES,GUIDINGPRINCIPLESBUSINESSMISSIONOBJECTIVESANDPRIORITIESRESOURCEALLOCATIONS,IDENTIFYPEOPLERELATEDBUSINESSISSUES,DEFINEHRSTRATEGIES,OBJECTIVES,ANDACTIONPLANS,IMPLEMENTHRPROCESSES,POLICIESANDPRACTICES,IMPLEMENTPROCESSESTOACHIEVEDESIREDRESULTSBUSINESSGOALSCOMPANYSTRENGTHS/WEAKNESSESEXTERNALOPPORTUNITIES/THREATSSOURCEOFCOMPETITIVEADVANTAGE,ESTABLISHTHECONTEXTBUSINESSGOALSCOMPANYSTRENGTHS/WEAKNESSESEXTERNALOPPORTUNITIES/THREATSSOURCEOFCOMPETITIVEADVANTAGE,STRATEGICANALYSIS,STRATEGYFORMULATION,STRATEGYIMPLEMENTATION,,,,,,,,LINKINGTHEPROCESSESOFHRPANDSTRATEGICPLANNING,,,,ENSURINGTHEFITBETWEENHRANDSTRATEGY,EXTERNALFITOREXTERNALALIGNMENTFOCUSESONTHECONNECTIONBETWEENTHEBUSINESSOBJECTIVESANDTHEMAJORINITIATIVESINHRINTERNALFITORINTERNALALIGNMENTALIGNINGHRPRACTICESWITHONEANOTHERTOESTABLISHACONFIGURATIONTHATISMUTUALLYREINFORCING,REMINDERORGANIZATIONSTRATEGYMODEL,概念理解2,HRP包括對(duì)企業(yè)特定時(shí)期內(nèi)的人員供給和需求進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)、根據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)的結(jié)果采取相應(yīng)的措施進(jìn)行供需平衡。HRP對(duì)企業(yè)人力資源供給和需求的預(yù)測(cè)要從數(shù)量和質(zhì)量這兩個(gè)方面來(lái)進(jìn)行。,RESULTSOFINADEQUATEHRPLANNING,VACANTPOSITIONSCREATECOSTLYINEFFICIENCIESOVERTIMEHOURSATPREMIUMCOSTSIMULTANEOUSLAYOFFSANDHIRINGMASSLAYOFFSREQUIRINGSEVERANCEPAYEXTENDEDNOTICEPERIODSINEFFECTIVETRAINING,DEVELOPMENT,CAREERPLANNINGTURNOVEROFHIGHPERFORMERSPROBLEMSWITHEMPLOYMENTEQUITYGOALSINABILITYTOMEETOPERATIONALANDSTRATEGICPLANS,PURPOSEOFHRP,HRP’SPURPOSEISTHEEFFECTIVEDEPLOYMENTOFHUMANRESOURCESTHROUGHANTICIPATINGORGANIZATIONALLABORSUPPLYANDDEMANDPROVIDINGEXPANDEDEMPLOYMENTOPPORTUNITIESGUIDINGTHEDEVELOPMENTANDTRAININGTHEWORKFORCE,人力資源規(guī)劃的內(nèi)容,COMPREHENSIVENESSOFPLANNING“PLANBASEDHRP”ISPARTOFORGANIZATION’SBUSINESSPLANNINGHRPFORSPECIALPROJECTSPLANNEDORUNPLANNEDNEEDS,,ASSIGNMENTPLAN,HRP的意義和作用,有助于企業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的制定有助于企業(yè)保持人員狀況的穩(wěn)定有助于企業(yè)降低人工成本的開(kāi)支對(duì)HRM的其他職能具有指導(dǎo)意義,RELATIONSHIPS,人力資源規(guī)劃的程序,人力資源規(guī)劃的程序,IMPLEMENTTHEBALANCEABLEPLAN,HRPANDENVIRONMENTALSCANNING,ENVIRONMENTALSCANNINGTHESYSTEMATICMONITORINGOFTHEMAJOREXTERNALFORCESINFLUENCINGTHEORGANIZATIONECONOMICFACTORSGENERALANDREGIONALCONDITIONSCOMPETITIVETRENDSNEWPROCESSES,SERVICES,ANDINNOVATIONSTECHNOLOGICALCHANGESROBOTICSANDOFFICEAUTOMATIONPOLITICALANDLEGISLATIVEISSUESLAWSANDADMINISTRATIVERULINGSSOCIALCONCERNSCHILDCAREANDEDUCATIONALPRIORITIESDEMOGRAPHICTRENDSAGE,COMPOSITION,ANDLITERACY,SCANNINGTHEINTERNALENVIRONMENT,CULTURALAUDITSAUDITSOFTHECULTUREANDQUALITYOFWORKLIFEINANORGANIZATIONHOWDOEMPLOYEESSPENDTHEIRTIMEHOWDOTHEYINTERACTWITHEACHOTHERAREEMPLOYEESEMPOWEREDWHATISTHEPREDOMINANTLEADERSHIPSTYLEOFMANAGERSHOWDOEMPLOYEESADVANCEWITHINTHEORGANIZATIONBENCHMARKINGTHEPROCESSOFCOMPARINGTHEORGANIZATION’SPROCESSESANDPRACTICESWITHTHOSEOFOTHERCOMPANIES,FORECASTINGDEMAND,CONSIDERATIONSPRODUCT/SERVICEDEMANDTECHNOLOGYFINANCIALRESOURCESABSENTEEISM/TURNOVERORGANIZATIONALGROWTHMANAGEMENTPHILOSOPHY,TECHNIQUESTRENDANALYSISMANAGERIALESTIMATESDELPHITECHNIQUE,TECHNIQUESSTAFFINGTABLESMARKOVANALYSISSKILLSINVENTORIESMANAGEMENTINVENTORIESREPLACEMENTCHARTSSUCCESSIONPLANNING,EXTERNALCONSIDERATIONSDEMOGRAPHICCHANGESEDUCATIONOFTHEWORKFORCELABORMOBILITYGOVERNMENTPOLICIESUNEMPLOYMENTRATE,FORECASTINGSUPPLY,BALANCINGSUPPLYANDDEMAND,SHORTAGERECRUITMENTFULLTIMEPARTTIMERECALLS,SURPLUSREDUCTIONSLAYOFFSTERMINATIONSDEMOTIONSRETIREMENTS,,,人力資源需求的預(yù)測(cè)FORECASTINGPERSONNELNEEDS,人力資源需求的分析STRATEGYANDPLANSPRODUCTANDSERVICEDEMANDPROJECTEDTURNOVERQUALITYANDSKILLSOFYOUREMPLOYEESSTRATEGICDECISIONSTOUPGRADETHEQUALITYOFPRODUCTSORSERVICESORENTERINTONEWMARKETSTECHNOLOGICALANDOTHERCHANGESRESULTINGININCREASEDPRODUCTIVITYTHEFINANCIALRESOURCEAVAILABLETOYOURDEPARTMENTWORKLOADOFAPOSITIONEFFICIENCYCHANGING,,人力資源需求預(yù)測(cè)的方法主觀判斷法MANAGERIALESTIMATEMANAGEMENTFORECASTSARETHEOPINIONSJUDGMENTSOFSUPERVISORS,DEPARTMENTMANAGERS,EXPERTS,OROTHERSKNOWLEDGEABLEABOUTTHEORGANIZATION’SFUTUREEMPLOYMENTNEEDS德?tīng)柗品―ELPHITECHNIQUETHEDELPHITECHNIQUEISAMETHODFOROBTAININGFORECASTSFROMAPANELOFINDEPENDENTEXPERTSOVERTWOORMOREROUNDS,差距,,德?tīng)柗品ǖ奶卣髂涿远啻斡锌刂频姆答伨C合性德?tīng)柗品ǖ牟襟E確定預(yù)測(cè)題目，選定專家小組；設(shè)計(jì)調(diào)查表，準(zhǔn)備有關(guān)材料；征詢專家初次判斷意見(jiàn)；綜合整理收回的各位專家初次判斷意見(jiàn)，作出定量化的歸納，加以必要說(shuō)明。并反饋給各位專家，請(qǐng)他們?cè)俅嗡伎?，提出判斷意?jiàn)；經(jīng)過(guò)反復(fù)征詢意見(jiàn)后，做出預(yù)測(cè)值。,,德?tīng)柗品ǖ膬?yōu)點(diǎn)（1）各專家能夠在不受干擾的情況下，獨(dú)立、充分地表明自己的意見(jiàn)；（2）預(yù)測(cè)值是根據(jù)各位專家的意見(jiàn)綜合而成的，能夠發(fā)揮集體的智慧；（3）應(yīng)用面比較廣，費(fèi)用比較節(jié)省。德?tīng)柗品ǖ娜秉c(diǎn)在綜合預(yù)測(cè)值時(shí)，僅僅是根據(jù)各專家的主觀判斷，缺乏客觀標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，而且顯得強(qiáng)求一致。,趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)法TRENDANALYSISTHESTUDYOFAFIRM’SPASTEMPLOYMENTNEEDSOVERAPERIODOFYEARSTOPREDICTFUTURENEEDS回歸分析REGRESSIONANALYSIS比率預(yù)測(cè)法RATIOANALYSISAFORECASTINGTECHNIQUEFORDETERMININGFUTURESTAFFNEEDSBYUSINGRATIOSBETWEENACAUSALFACTORANDTHENUMBEROFEMPLOYEESNEEDEDASSUMESTHATTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENTHECAUSALFACTORANDSTAFFINGNEEDSISCONSTANT,,趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)法例題某公司過(guò)去8年人員的數(shù)據(jù)如下，請(qǐng)預(yù)測(cè)今后第二年和第四年人力資源的需求是多少,趨勢(shì)線可以表示為,AB的確定根據(jù)最小平方法,,這樣就可以預(yù)測(cè)出今后第二年和第四年的人力資源需求為,,,RATIOANALYSIS比率分析,,PATIENTS病人100NURSES護(hù)士25PATIENT病人/NURSE護(hù)士RATIO比率4/1,IFTHEREARE315PATIENTS,HOWMANYNURSESARENEEDED如果有315個(gè)病人，需要多少護(hù)士,人力資源供給的預(yù)測(cè)FORECASTINGPERSONNELSUPPLY,FORECASTINGTHESUPPLYOFOUTSIDECANDIDATESFACTORSIMPACTINGTHESUPPLYOFOUTSIDECANDIDATESGENERALECONOMICCONDITIONSLABORMARKETSEXPECTEDUNEMPLOYMENTRATEATTRACTIONOFENTERPRISEATTITUDETOWARDJOB,,FORECASTINGTHESUPPLYOFINSIDECANDIDATES現(xiàn)有人力資源的分析人力資源自身的自然變化（退休、生育），主要是對(duì)年齡、性別、身體狀況等等進(jìn)行分析。人員流動(dòng)的分析（重要前提假定人員的質(zhì)量不發(fā)生變化）人員由企業(yè)流出人員在企業(yè)內(nèi)部流動(dòng),,人員的質(zhì)量分析（假定人員沒(méi)有發(fā)生流動(dòng)）顯性原因如工資的增加技能的培訓(xùn)隱形原因加班加點(diǎn)工作分享、縮短工作時(shí)間,人力資源供給預(yù)測(cè)的方法,SKILLINVENTORIESREPLACEMENTCHARTSMARKOVANALYSIS,INTERNALSUPPLYFORECASTINGTOOLS,SKILLINVENTORIESFILESOFPERSONNELEDUCATION,EXPERIENCE,INTERESTS,SKILLS,ETC,THATALLOWMANAGERSTOQUICKLYMATCHJOBOPENINGSWITHEMPLOYEEBACKGROUNDS,,PERSONNELREPLACEMENTCHARTSCOMPANYRECORDSSHOWINGPRESENTPERFORMANCEANDPROMOTABILITYOFINSIDECANDIDATESFORTHEMOSTIMPORTANTPOSITIONS,,,FIGURE46,,人力資源水池模型,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,12,3,4,23,,,,1,23,36,9,60,27,90,36,,,職位層次,,,A,B,,將提升到上一層次,,外部,招聘,,將提升到本層次,,退休＋辭職,（提升受阻）,A現(xiàn)有人員B可提升人員,,,,,,調(diào)入6人,現(xiàn)有30人,,調(diào)出和離職10人,未來(lái)供給28人,調(diào)入6人,現(xiàn)有50人,調(diào)出和離職12人,未來(lái)供給40人,,晉升5人,,降職3人,,晉升8人,降職3人,,降職4人,,內(nèi)部供給總量115人,,馬爾科夫模型是用來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)等時(shí)間間隔點(diǎn)上（一般為1年）各類人員分布狀況的一種動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)測(cè)技術(shù)。MARKOVANALYSISSHOWSTHEPERCENTAGEANDACTUALNUMBEROFEMPLOYEESWHOREMAININEACHJOBFROMONEYEARTOTHENEXT,ASWELLASTHEPROPORTIONSOFTHOSEWHOAREPROMOTED,TRANSFERRED,OREXITTHEORGANIZATION,,,,,,,,,某類人員的轉(zhuǎn)移率（P）,本類人員原有數(shù)量,轉(zhuǎn)移出本類人員數(shù)量,,,例題1已知三類人員的轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣和現(xiàn)在三類人員分布狀況，如果每年向第一類補(bǔ)充80人，求未來(lái)人力資源供給分布狀況。,,,,,已知人員轉(zhuǎn)移率P，T＝0時(shí)人員分布情況，每年向A類補(bǔ)充人數(shù)80人根據(jù)馬爾可夫計(jì)算公式可知，某類人員在T時(shí)刻的供給量N＝該類人員總數(shù)留存率＋補(bǔ)充人數(shù)其中，補(bǔ)充人數(shù)下類人員總數(shù)晉升率＋該類招聘人數(shù)＋上類人員總數(shù)降職率,列表預(yù)測(cè)2007－2010年三類人員供給情況,例題2假設(shè)某企業(yè)有四類職位，從高到低依次是A,B,C,D,各類人員的分布情況如下表，請(qǐng)預(yù)測(cè)一下未來(lái)人員的分布。,,,,解,BALANCINGDEMANDANDSUPPLYOFHR人力資源供需的平衡,DEALINGWITHANOVERSUPPLYOFPERSONNEL人員供給過(guò)剩處理,FREEZEHIRING凍結(jié)雇傭RESTRICTOVERTIME限制超時(shí)RETRAIN/REDEPLOY重新培訓(xùn)/調(diào)動(dòng)SWITCHTOPARTTIMEEMPLOYEES轉(zhuǎn)成兼職員工USEUNPAIDVACATIONS采用無(wú)薪休假,USEASHORTERWORKWEEK采用縮短的工作周USEPAYREDUCTIONS采用減少工資USESABBATICALS采用周期性休息ENCOURAGEEARLYRETIREMENTS鼓勵(lì)提前退休,,HIREADDITIONALWORKERS雇傭另外的工人IMPROVEPRODUCTIVITYTHROUGHTRAINING通過(guò)培訓(xùn)提高生產(chǎn)力USEOVERTIME采用超時(shí)ADDADDITIONALSHIFTS增加另外的班次,REASSIGNJOBS重新分配工作USETEMPORARYWORKERS使用短期工人IMPROVERETENTION改善留置率,,DEALINGWITHANUNDERSUPPLYOFPERSONNEL人員供給不足處理,HUMANRESOURCEPLANNINGPROCESSEXTERNALENVIRONMENTINTERNALENVIRONMENT,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,STRATEGICPLANNING,HUMANRESOURCEPLANNING,FORECASTINGHUMANRESOURCEREQUIREMENTS,,COMPARINGREQUIREMENTSANDAVAILABILITY,FORECASTINGHUMANRESOURCEAVAILABILITY,SURPLUSOFWORKERS,DEMANDSUPPLY,NOACTION,RESTRICTEDHIRING,REDUCEDHOURS,EARLYRETIREMENT,LAYOFF,DOWNSIZING,SHORTAGEOFWORKERS,RECRUITMENT,SELECTION,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,HUMANRESOURCESPLANNINGMODEL,,EMPLOYMENTFORECASTING,,SUPPLYANALYSIS,BALANCESUPPLYANDDEMAND,,LEADSTO,RESULTINGIN,CONSIDERATIONS,INTERNAL,RECRUITMENT,FULLTIMEPARTTIMERECALLS,REDUCTIONS,TERMINATIONSLAYOFFSDEMOTIONSRETIREMENT,STAFFINGTABLESMARKOVANALYSISSKILLSINVENTORIESMANAGEMENTINVENTORIESREPLACEMENTCHARTSSUCCESSIONPLANNING,PRODUCT/SERVICEECONOMICSTECHNOLOGYFINANCIALRESOURCESABSENTEEISM/TURNOVERGROWTHMANAGEMENTPHILOSOPHY,TECHNIQUES,TRENDANALYSISMANAGERIALESTIMATEDELPHITECHNIQUE,EXTERNAL,DEMOGRAPHICCHANGESEDUCATIONOFWORKFORCELABORMOBILITYGOVERNMENTALPOLICIESUNEMPLOYMENTRATE,
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