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1、原文：原文：TheReductionofSystematicRiskInTheUnitedStatesFinancialSystemGoingfwardthecentralproblemffinancialregulation(definedasthepreionofrulesasdistinctfromsupervisionriskassessment)istoreducesystemicrisk.Systemicriskisther

2、iskthatthefailureofonesignificantfinancialinstitutioncancausesignificantlycontributetothefailureofothersignificantfinancialinstitutionsasaresultoftheirlinkagestoeachother.Systemicriskcanalsobedefinedtoincludethepossibili

3、tythatoneexogenousshockmaysimultaneouslycausecontributetothefailureofmultiplesignificantfinancialinstitutions.ThisArticlefocusesonthefmerdefinitionbecauseproperregulationcouldhavethegreatestpotentialtoreducesystemicriski

4、nthisarea.Therearefourprincipallinkagesthatcanresultinachainreactionoffailures.Firstthereareinterbankdepositswhetherfromloansfromcrespondentaccountsusedtoprocesspayments.TheseaccountswerethemajconcernwhenContinentalIllin

5、oisBankalmostfailedinthe1980s.Continentalheldsizabledepositsofotherbanksinmanycasestheamountofthedepositssubstantiallyexceededthecapitalofthedepositbanks.Thesebanksgenerallyheldsuchsizabledepositsbecausetheyclearedpaymen

6、tssuchascheckswiretransfersthroughContinental.IfContinentalhadfailedthosebankswouldhavefailedaswell.Section308oftheFDICImprovementActof1991givestheFederalReserveBoardpowerstodealwiththisproblem.TheActpermitstheBoardtolim

7、itthecreditextendedbyaninsureddeposityinstitutiontoanotherdeposityinstitution.Limitationofinterbankdepositsmaybefeasiblewithrespecttoplacementsbyonebankwithanotherbecausetheamountofcreditextendedisfixedfagiventerm.Indeed

8、itappearsthatthechainreactionriskarisingfrombilateralcreditexposuresfromovernightFederalReservefundstransactionsisquitelow:Losseswouldnotexceedonepercentoftotalcommercialbankingassetsaslongaslossratesarekepttohisticallyo

9、bservedlevels.Exposuresaremedifficulttoidentifywithrespecttointerbankclearingaccountswheretheamountofcreditextendedisafunctionofpaymenttraffic.FexampleBankAmaybecreditedbyitscrespondentBankBfanincomingwiretransferof$10mi

10、llion.BankAisthusacreditofBankBfthisamount.IfBankBweretofailBankAisseriouslyexposed.Withoutmaterialchangesinthepaymentgovernmentmoney$40billionin401(k)plans$38billioninretirementplans.Thereptsexplanationofthegovernmentsa

11、ctionalsomentionedconcernoverstemmingrunsonmoneymarketfundswhichheld$20billioninAIGcommercialpaper.Similarlyintheirrecenttestimonyonthe“FederalBailoutofAIG“TreasurySecretaryTimothyGeithnerNewYkFederalReserveGeneralCounse

12、lThomasBaxteralsoemphasizedfactsotherthanderivativescounterpartyriskincludingtheimpactthatthefailureofAIGwouldhaveonmoneymarketfundspersonalsavingsretirementplansinsurancepolicyholders.Ifprospectiveinvestlossesratherthan

13、thefalloutofinterconnectednesswerethetruebasisfthegovernmentpolicywithrespecttoAIGitmaybethattheconcernwithsystemicriskisoverstated.FurtherstudybetterdisclosurefromtheTreasuryFederalReserveisneededtosupptinfmedestimateso

14、fthemagnitudeoftheproblem.InanyeventgaugingtheimpactofsystemicriskisdifficulttodeterminebeyondthescopeofthisArticle.Thethreatofsystemicrisk(whetherrealimagined)resultsinboththeneedfgovernmentbailoutsattaxpayerexpenseinan

15、increaseinmalhazard.Theseresultsoccurbecausebothequitydebtholdersaswellascounterpartiesmaybeprotectedagainstlosses.Ofcoursethegovernmentcoulddecidenottointervenebutthislaissezfaireapproachcouldputtheentireglobaleconomyat

16、riskanevenwseoutcome.Asthefinancialcrisishasillustratedbankscannotalwayscountonthegovernmenttocutoffsystemicriskwhenitoccurs.ThepoliticsofsupplyingmoneytobanksareunpopularunsustainablebytheFederalReserveoverthelongtermwi

17、thoutintensepublicscrutinylossofindependence.Attheoutsetitisalsowthnotingthatthe“VolckerRules“relatedlimitationsonbanksizeannouncedbytheObamaAdministrationonJanuary212009donothavemuchifanypotentialtoreducesystemicrisk.Th

18、eVolckerRuleswouldprohibitbankholdingcompaniesalloftheirsubsidiariesfromengaginginproprietarytradingaswellasfrominvestinginsponsinghedgefundprivateequityoperations.AlthoughPresidentObamahasacterizedproprietarytradingastr

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