城市產業(yè)結構多重均衡的研究【外文翻譯】_第1頁
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1、原文：（題目開始至原文：（題目開始至P32倒數第五行）倒數第五行）ASEARCHFMULTIPLEEQUILIBRIAINURBANINDUSTRIALSTRUCTUREABSTRACTTheiesfeaturingmultipleequilibriaarewidespreadacrosseconomics.Yetlittleempiricalwkhasaskedifmultipleequilibriaarefeaturesofreal

2、economies.WeexaminethisinthecontextoftheAlliedbombingofJapanesecitiesindustriesinWldWarII.Wedevelopanewempiricaltestfmultipleequilibriaapplyittodataf114Japanesecitiesineightmanufacturingindustries.Thedataprovidenosupptft

3、heexistenceofmultipleequilibria.Intheaftermathevenofimmenseshocksacitytypicallyrecoversnotonlyitspopulationitsshareofaggregatemanufacturingbuteventheindustriesithadbefe.1.MULTIPLEEQUILIBRIAINTHEYDATATheconceptofmultiplee

4、quilibriaisahallmarkofmoderneconomicsonewhoseinfluencecrossesbroadswathesoftheprofession.Inmacroeconomicsitisofferedasanunderpinningfthebusinesscycle(CooperJohn1988).Indevelopmenteconomicsitrationalizesatheyofthe“bigpush

5、”(Murphy，ShleiferVishny1988).Inurbanregionaleconomicsitprovidesafoundationfunderstingvariationinthedensityofeconomicactivityacrosscitiesregions(Krugman1991).Inthefieldofinternationaleconomicsithasevenbeenofferedasacidate

6、explanationfthedivisionoftheglobaleconomyintoanindustrialNthanonindustrialSouthaswellasthepossiblefuturecollapseofsuchawldregime(KrugmanVenables1995).Thetheeticalliteraturehasnowfirmlyestablishedtheanalyticfoundationsfth

7、eexistenceofmultipleequilibria.Howevertheyhasfaroutpacedempirics.Themostimptantempiricalquestionarisingfromthisintellectualcurrenthasalmostnotbeentouched:AremultipleequilibriaasalientfeatureofrealeconomiesfiThisisinheren

8、tlyadifficultquestion.Atanymomentintimeoneobservesonlytheactualequilibriumnotalternativeequilibriathatexistonlypotentially.IftheresearcherobservesachangeovertimeitisdifficulttoknowifthischangereflectsashiftThesecondimpta

9、ntadvanceoverDavisWeinstein(2002)isthatweprovideasharpercontrastbetweentheimplicationsofmodelsofuniquemultipleequilibriaonethatnaturallysuggestsempiricalimplementationinaframewkofthresholdregression.Thisnewapproachnolong

10、errequiresthatwetreatuniqueequilibriumasthenullhencegivesagreateropptunityfmultipleequilibriatodemonstratetheirempiricalrelevance.Meoversubjecttotherestrictionsunderlyingouranalysiswenowexaminenecessary(ratherthansuffici

11、ent)conditionsfmultipleequilibria.Henceafailuretofindevidenceoftheseconditionswouldbeamepowerfulrejectionofthetheyofmultipleequilibriainthiscontext.Themethodsdevelopedinthispapertotestfmultipleequilibriamayhaveapplicatio

12、nacrossabroadrangeoffields.Thepresentpaperdeliversaclearmessage:Thedatapreferamodelwithauniquestableequilibrium.Facedevenwithshocksoffrighteningmagnitudethereisastrongtendencyfcitiestorecovernotonlytheirprishareofpopulat

13、ionmanufacturinginaggregatebuteventhespecificindustriesthattheypreviouslyenjoyed.Ourtestsprovidenosupptfthehypothesisofmultipleequilibria.Theseresultsarehighlyrelevantfpolicyanalysis.Theiesofmultipleequilibriacarrywithin

14、themanimptanttemptation.Ifmultipleequilibriaarepossibleitistemptingtointervenetothatdeemedmostadvantageousbythepolicymaker.Ifthresholdsseparateradicallydifferentequilibriathentheresolutepolicymakercanchangethewholecourse

15、ofregionaldevelopmentstronglyaffecttheindustrialcompositionofaregionevenwithlimitedtemparyinterventions.ImplicitlysuchviewsareatthebaseofregionalurbandevelopmentpoliciesinEuropetheUnitedStateselsewhere.Ourresultsprovidea

16、strongcautionagainsttheideathatonemayuselimitedtemparyinterventionstoequilibriawithlargepermanenteffectsoncitydevelopment.Weconfirmonpopulationcityaggregatemanufacturingdatathatsuchaggregatemeasuresofactivityincitiesareh

17、ighlyrobusttotemparyshocksevenofimmensesize.Perhapsthisisnotsosurprisinggiventhatnaturalgeographicfeaturesmayhaveaverystronginfluenceonaggregateactivity(RappaptSachs2001).Howeveritismuchhardertobelievethatthesevisiblefea

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