宏觀專題2019年國(guó)內(nèi)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)研判及資產(chǎn)配置建議

1、目錄1.1.2019年：經(jīng)濟(jì)將下臺(tái)階，政策將保持寬松.......................................52.2.明年CPI中樞上移，PPI下降..........................................................62.1.明年對(duì)美加征關(guān)稅引起的通脹上行壓力不大...........................62.2.豬周期再起，推漲食品類價(jià)格........

2、...............................82.3.明年P(guān)PI下滑將傳導(dǎo)至CPI非食品項(xiàng)，原油支撐效應(yīng)或減弱............112.4.預(yù)計(jì)2019年CPI呈倒U形態(tài)，中樞上移.............................123.3.投資緩降，消費(fèi)或弱勢(shì)穩(wěn)定，出口將顯著下降.................................143.1.景氣與外需回落，利潤(rùn)惡化，成本上升，制造業(yè)投資將

3、小幅回落........153.2.資金緊張，拿地積極性或下降，廣義庫存回升，地產(chǎn)投資預(yù)計(jì)回落......183.3.基數(shù)降低，政府債務(wù)可控，預(yù)計(jì)明年基建投資將回升..................203.4.減個(gè)稅效應(yīng)緩慢發(fā)酵，預(yù)計(jì)消費(fèi)明年弱勢(shì)穩(wěn)定........................243.5.進(jìn)出口預(yù)計(jì)均將下滑，凈出口對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)貢獻(xiàn)下降........................254.4.下一步政策紅利：開放、創(chuàng)新、

4、改革............................................264.1.企業(yè)減負(fù)刻不容緩，減稅降費(fèi)在路上................................264.2.做自己的事，改革、開放、創(chuàng)新是唯一最佳策略......................285.5.大類資產(chǎn)配臵建議.........................................................

5、..............305.1.權(quán)益持有價(jià)值上升，利率低位運(yùn)行..................................305.2.黃金明年預(yù)計(jì)有正回報(bào)............................................315.3.謹(jǐn)慎看待工業(yè)品表現(xiàn)，關(guān)注豬周期..................................32圖1：中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)進(jìn)口加征關(guān)稅清單..................

6、............................................................7圖2：大豆進(jìn)口占比.......................................................................................................8圖3：大豆進(jìn)口占國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)比例................................

7、.....................................................8圖4：歷次豬周期劃分...................................................................................................9圖5：能繁母豬價(jià)格與豬肉價(jià)格呈反向關(guān)系.....................................

8、.............................10圖6：母豬生豬存欄比與豬肉價(jià)格呈反向關(guān)系..............................................................10圖7：母豬與仔豬飼料產(chǎn)量負(fù)增長(zhǎng)................................................................................11圖8：豬肉價(jià)格預(yù)

9、測(cè)圖..................................................................................................11圖9：核心CPI及CPI各分項(xiàng)走勢(shì)...............................................................................11圖10：CPI非食品各項(xiàng)走勢(shì)......

10、...................................................................................11圖11：PPI同比與CPI非食品項(xiàng)同比...........................................................................12圖12：油價(jià)漲幅與CPI非食品項(xiàng)同比.....................

11、.....................................................12圖13：庫欣地區(qū)商業(yè)原油庫存走勢(shì)..............................................................................12圖14：歐元區(qū)PMI指數(shù)與GDP季調(diào)環(huán)比.................................................

12、...................12圖15：CPI同比走勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)：布油55美元桶情景..........................................................13圖61：房地產(chǎn)投資與商品價(jià)格指數(shù)..............................................................................32圖62：基建投資與商品價(jià)格指數(shù).....

13、.............................................................................32圖63：豬肉價(jià)格與二元能繁母豬價(jià)格...........................................................................33圖64：豬肉價(jià)格與母豬生豬存欄比...............................

14、...............................................33表1：明年主要宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)預(yù)測(cè)..................................................................................6表2：基建投資完成額預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果...........................................................

15、.........................21表3：基建投資自籌資金測(cè)算結(jié)果(單位：億元).....................................................................22表4：新舊個(gè)稅累進(jìn)稅率表........................................................................................

16、...24表5：個(gè)稅節(jié)省表.........................................................................................................24表6：今年自貿(mào)協(xié)定談判新進(jìn)展....................................................................................29