2019快遞行業(yè)策略報告競爭下半場，關注成本及現(xiàn)金流

1、內容目錄內容目錄1.2018快遞板塊回顧快遞板塊回顧..................................................................................................................................................................................................

2、............................................................................................41.1.行業(yè)發(fā)展進入陣痛期..................................................................................................................

3、..............41.2.量：新型電商平臺帶來行業(yè)新期待....................................................................................................41.3價：價格持續(xù)承壓，或將進入競爭高潮.................................................................

4、..........................71.4競爭格局：龍頭份額繼續(xù)提升.............................................................................................................82.2019關注價格戰(zhàn)，現(xiàn)金流、成關注價格戰(zhàn)，現(xiàn)金流、成本將成為核心優(yōu)勢將成為核心優(yōu)勢........................

5、..............................................................................................................................................82.1.價格戰(zhàn)致行業(yè)利潤收窄...............................................................

6、............................................................82.2管理制度將是價格戰(zhàn)主要發(fā)起方式...................................................................................................102.3價格戰(zhàn)對量、成本及現(xiàn)金流具有重要影響...................

7、...................................................................112.4現(xiàn)金流抬升公司存活能力，成本優(yōu)勢主導價格戰(zhàn)........................................................................153.投資策略投資策略...........................................

8、............................................................................................................................................................................................................................

9、.........................................................174.風險提示風險提示.......................................................................................................................................................

10、.........................................................................................................................................................................17圖表目錄圖表目錄圖1：快遞板塊對比上證綜指2018走勢......................

11、....................................................................................4圖2：行業(yè)快遞業(yè)務量增速...........................................................................................................................

12、..........4圖3：中東西部地區(qū)業(yè)務占比................................................................................................................................5圖4：同城、異地、國際業(yè)務量占比...................................................

13、................................................................5圖5：拼多多訂單量占快遞行業(yè)比率...................................................................................................................5圖6：各省2017人均年使用快遞頻率（次年）.

14、...........................................................................................6圖7：實物網購規(guī)模增速.....................................................................................................................

15、....................6圖8：網上零售占比（%）...............................................................................................................................................6圖9：快遞單件價格走勢................................

16、.........................................................................................................7圖10：“三通一達”單件面單中轉下降幅度..............................................................................................

17、........7圖11：快遞行業(yè)CR8.....................................................................................................................8圖12：快遞行業(yè)CR4.......................................................................

18、..............................................8圖13：規(guī)模以上快遞單件收入及同比增速（12個月滾動數(shù)據(jù)）............................................................9圖14：單件成本（不含派費）.....................................................................

19、......................................................11圖15：單件毛利.......................................................................................................................................................11圖16

20、：資本開支到業(yè)務量傳導圖.......................................................................................................................12圖17：資本開支占營收比...........................................................................

21、.........................................................12圖18：單件毛利（元件）...................................................................................................................................13圖19：歸母凈利潤經營性現(xiàn)金凈流

22、入............................................................................................................13圖20：購買固定資產、無形資產、其他長期資產現(xiàn)金流出營收..........................................................14圖21：固定資產原值業(yè)務量........

23、......................................................................................................................14圖22：在手資金（現(xiàn)金理財，億元）...................................................................................

24、........................16圖23：資產負債率..................................................................................................................................................16表1：網購人數(shù)變化............................

25、.......................................................................................................................7表2：行業(yè)單價變化...........................................................................................

26、........................................................9表3：快遞收入成本拆分.......................................................................................................................................10表4：通達系現(xiàn)金流狀況....

27、...................................................................................................................................13表5：價格戰(zhàn)對現(xiàn)金流影響測算.........................................................................

28、................................................15規(guī)模以上快遞業(yè)務量:當月值(億件)50454035302520151050同比（%）100%80%60%40%20%0%20%40%1.2018快遞板塊回顧1.1.行業(yè)發(fā)展進入陣痛期2018年截止11月底，快遞板塊自年初開始跌幅達到32.3%，上證綜指跌幅為22.2%，相對收益跑輸大盤。上半年自2月份到6月份，快遞板塊股價相對穩(wěn)定，具有較

29、明顯的相對優(yōu)勢；下半年受經濟環(huán)境、貿易戰(zhàn)等因素影響大盤下跌，快遞板塊下跌22%，上證綜指下跌8.5%。上半年快遞板塊相對收益來自于拼多多等電商發(fā)展帶來的超預期的快遞業(yè)務量增速；下半年股價跌幅較大的原因主要系業(yè)務量增速持續(xù)回落，價格戰(zhàn)依舊嚴峻，各家持續(xù)加速資本開支，整個快遞生態(tài)惡劣導致市場對短期行業(yè)利潤及快遞公司生存狀況產生擔憂。圖1：快遞板塊對比上證綜指：快遞板塊對比上證綜指2018走勢走勢45.000040.000035.000030

30、.000025.000020.000010.500010.00009.50009.00008.50008.00007.50007.00006.50006.0000資料來源：wind，快遞板塊上證綜指1.2.量：新型電商平臺帶來行業(yè)新期待量：新型電商平臺帶來行業(yè)新期待一季度業(yè)務量增速稍有回升，下半年增速略有回落：2018年110月份行業(yè)快遞業(yè)務量達到394億件，同比增加26.6%，去年同期同比增速為29.1%，下降2.5%。分月份來看，上

31、半年行業(yè)增速較快，其中一季度業(yè)務量同比增速達到31%，環(huán)比出現(xiàn)一定程度回升，隨后二三季度相較一季度同比增速出現(xiàn)一定程度的回調。圖2：行業(yè)快遞業(yè)務量增速：行業(yè)快遞業(yè)務量增速資料來源：wind，20170707201708072017090720171007201711072017120720180107201802072018030720180407201805072018060720180707201808072018090720181